After remaining stable in June, the lethargy continues for house prices in Canada’s major urban centers in July, with only marginal growth of 0.2% during the month. This relative stability comes as the resale market fell back slightly during the month after a brief rebound in activity in June, which followed the start of the Bank of Canada’s monetary easing cycle. All in all, resale market conditions point to a fairly balanced market between buyers and sellers at national level, reducing pressure on prices. While record population growth, a shortage of housing supply and the Bank of Canada’s forthcoming rate cuts will continue to support the Canadian real estate market in the months ahead, we are cautiously optimistic about the magnitude of any recovery in the housing market in the months ahead and its potential impact on prices. Indeed, many uncertainties remain, including the risk of a further deterioration in the labour market, particularly among young people who are facing the worst affordability conditions in decades. It’s true that consumer confidence has been somewhat reinvigorated by the start of overnight rate cuts, but interest rates remain in highly restrictive territory for the time being.

Month-Over-Month

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™, which covers the country’s eleven largest CMAs, remained relatively stable from June to July, with a marginal increase of 0.2%, following the stabilization also observed the previous month. In July, six of the 11 CMAs included in the index recorded growth: Hamilton (+2.3%), Victoria (+1.0%), Halifax (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.7%), Toronto (+0.3%) and Quebec City (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell in Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.4%), Winnipeg (-0.1%), Vancouver (-0.1%) and Montreal (-0.1%), while they remained stable in Edmonton during the month. On the other hand, price increases were observed in ten of the 20 CMAs not included in the composite index for which data are available in July. The strongest monthly increases were seen in Saint John (+4.1% after a 6.5% fall the previous month) and Guelph (+2.0%). Conversely, the biggest declines were in Moncton (-2.7%) and Brantford (-2.3%).

Before seasonal adjustments, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index™ rose by 0.3% from June to July, the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Moreover, increases were observed in eight of the 11 cities making up the index, ranging from +3.0% in Winnipeg to +0.2% in Vancouver and Ottawa-Gatineau. Conversely, the markets of Montreal (-0.7%), Halifax (-0.2%) and Toronto (-0.1%) were down.

Year-Over-Year

The Teranet-National Bank Composite Home Price Index™ rose by 2.0% from July 2023 to July 2024, less than the 3.6% increase recorded the previous month. Increases were observed in ten of the 11 cities making up the composite index in July. Calgary led the way with a 15.1% year-on-year price increase, followed by Edmonton with an 8.4% gain and Quebec City with 7.5% growth. As for the lagging markets, prices rose less than average in Victoria (+0.6%) and Hamilton (+1.3%), while they fell in Toronto (-1.4%). As for the other 20 CMAs not included in the composite index, annual gains were observed in thirteen of them. Among the rising markets, the strongest growth was recorded in Trois-Rivières (+10.8%) and Saint John (+10.1%). Conversely, the markets with the biggest declines were Peterborough (-3.9%) and Kitchener (-2.3%).

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index Remained Relatively Stable Again in July