In May, the housing inventory experienced a notable increase, continuing the upward trend from previous months, according to a recent Edge Realty Analytics report. Seasonally adjusted active inventory levels rose by 2.9% month-over-month (m/m), with Ontario seeing a significant 5.5% increase. Listings in Ontario are now 70% higher compared to the same time last year. However, it is important to note that despite these increases, national inventory levels have not yet returned to what would be considered normal levels.

Real Estate Market Trends Across Canada

Canada
On a national level, Canadian real estate sales have decreased by 6.4% year-over-year (y/y) and by 0.6% m/m. New listings, however, increased by 15.6% y/y and by a modest 0.5% m/m. Active inventory rose by 30.0% y/y and 2.9% m/m, indicating a substantial build-up of available properties. Despite the increase in inventory, house prices, measured by the Housing Price Index (HPI) and seasonally adjusted, showed a slight increase of 1.1% y/y but a minor decline of 0.2% m/m.

British Columbia
In BC, sales have dropped by 14.5% y/y but showed a slight recovery with a 1.9% increase m/m. New listings in BC rose by 11.7% y/y but fell by 4.0% m/m, indicating a mixed trend. Active inventory in BC surged by 42.6% y/y and by 2.4% m/m. House prices in the province grew by 4.4% y/y but slightly decreased by 0.1% m/m.

Alberta
Alberta presented a contrasting picture with sales increasing by 6.7% y/y and by 2.5% m/m. New listings in Alberta rose by 13.0% y/y and saw a significant m/m increase of 8.0%. Despite this, active inventory in Alberta declined by 11.7% y/y but rose slightly by 1.3% m/m. House prices in Alberta showed a notable increase of 9.9% y/y and 0.7% m/m.

Ontario
Ontario saw sales drop significantly by 17.1% y/y and 2.0% m/m. New listings, however, increased by 21.2% y/y and 1.6% m/m. Active inventory in Ontario saw a dramatic rise, up by 70.5% y/y and 5.5% m/m, reflecting a substantial build-up of available properties. Despite this increase in inventory, house prices in Ontario remained relatively stable, showing a slight increase of 0.5% y/y but a small decrease of 0.1% m/m.

Quebec
Quebec showed varied trends with sales increasing by 5.4% y/y but declining by 2.4% m/m. New listings in Quebec rose by 16.5% y/y but saw a slight decrease of 0.5% m/m. Active inventory in Quebec increased by 23.9% y/y and 2.8% m/m. House prices in Quebec also rose, showing a 4.9% increase y/y and a 0.4% increase m/m.

Regional Diversity

There are diverse regional trends in the Canadian housing market, with significant variations in sales, listings, inventory, and prices across different provinces. While some areas are seeing substantial increases in inventory and listings, others are experiencing more moderate changes.

Inventory
The increase in housing inventory is not uniform across Canada, revealing significant regional disparities. While Ontario is experiencing a sharp rise in inventory levels, this is being counterbalanced by continued declines in provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan, and regions within Atlantic Canada. This highlights the regional nature of Canada’s real estate market, making it clear that referring to a “Canadian” housing market is often an overgeneralization. Instead, the Canadian housing landscape should be understood as a collection of regional markets, each with its own unique trends and dynamics.

New Listings
Nationally, new listings increased by 0.5% month-over-month (m/m) and by 13.5% year-over-year (y/y) in May. Despite these gains, the 12-month rolling total for new listings remains significantly below normal levels. Previously, supply had been held off the market, but this trend is shifting. As a result, we can anticipate a strong flow of new listings throughout the remainder of the year.

Sales
On the demand side, this spring continues to disappoint. Seasonally adjusted home sales fell by 0.6% month-over-month (m/m) nationally in May, driven by a 2.0% decline in Ontario and a 2.4% drop in Quebec. In contrast, Alberta saw a 2.5% increase in sales.
Demand is particularly weak in Ontario, where home sales have decreased by 17% year-over-year (y/y) and remain nearly 30% below the average levels of the past decade.

Months of Inventory
With supply up and demand dropping, months of inventory nationally has risen to the highest level since 2020. Again, however, there are regional differences, such as between Alberta and Ontario.

Prices
Seasonally adjusted house prices slipped by another 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) in May, with the national figure dragged down by a significant decline in Toronto. In contrast, Alberta experienced a 0.8% increase in house prices last month.
For more context, the seasonally adjusted monthly change in prices across several major metropolitan areas shows that the reported national decline is due to downward pressure in just three markets. Meanwhile, eight other major markets saw substantial monthly increases in May.
Looking at the broader trend, house prices remain 14% below their peak levels nationally and are down 23% in inflation-adjusted terms.

Affordability
Assuming a 20% down payment and a 30-year amortization, a buyer purchasing a typical home today would face a monthly mortgage payment of $3,185. While this figure is not as favourable compared to 2021 levels, it is now trending in a positive direction.

Across Canada : Housing Trends in May by Joanna Gerber | Canadian Real Estate Wealth